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Cheaper CPO on the way

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PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to come under more pressure, as Malaysia’s palm oil stockpile is likely to increase further in the coming months.

After hitting a seven-month high in June, analysts believe the palm oil stockpile may increase on the back of a seasonally higher output trend and increasing competition from Indonesian exports.

CGS-CIMB Research said that Malaysian palm oil stocks are likely to be at the beginning of an upcycle.

“We project palm oil stocks to rise 21.4% month-on-month (m-o-m) to two million tonnes by end-July 2022, on higher output and lower exports,” it said in a note yesterday.

In June 2022, Malaysia’s CPO production rose by 6% m-o-m on higher harvesting days, while exports fell 12% m-o-m.

Amid the higher supply in the market, analysts are projecting lower CPO prices in the July-to-December 2022 period, following the higher-than-expected CPO prices in the first half of 2022 (1H22).

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UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research said CPO prices could remain weak in the near term, with the Indonesian government starting to allow more exports by increasing the domestic market obligation ratio and logistics congestion in Indonesia easing towards end-July.

UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research said: “The Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) average CPO price for the first six months of 2022 was at RM6,301.50 per tonne, up 55.5% year-on-year, with the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22) likely to be the peak for this cycle. The average local CPO price as reported by the MPOB for July 1 to 9 is now RM4,243 per tonne.”

“We believe the news flow would send a negative signal to the market with an impression of high inventory levels in Indonesia and cause buyers to wait for a lower purchase price,” it said.

The research house also pointed out that CPO prices have already peaked.

“The Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB) average CPO price for the first six months of 2022 was at RM6,301.50 per tonne, up 55.5% year-on-year, with the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22) likely to be the peak for this cycle.

“The average local CPO price as reported by the MPOB for July 1 to 9 is now RM4,243 per tonne,” it added.

It is noteworthy that CPO prices have fallen by over 45% from their peak of RM8,074 per tonne in early March, averaging at RM6,209 per tonne year-to-date.

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